Monday, March 19, 2012

Predictions for the 50k

Prior to the race, I put together a plan heavily based on my 20 mile race.  I broke it down by mile but I have  it basically summarized above by loop.

As I mentioned in my long race recap, auto pause was on my watch so the Garmin data was much shorter.

I made up my plan for the race so my pacers knew when to arrive. I thought everything was fast estimates.  Well it looks like it wasn't.  I'm actually surprised the last lap was so slow because it didn't have a water stop at the end and only had the stop at the spigot and the stop at the water stop.

I find it a little bit insane how close my actual time was compared to my predicted time. I was actually faster in the earlier laps and slower in the later laps but it all evened out.  I probably felt a lot worse near the end because I went so fast at the beginning though.

If I had done anything close to what any training plan suggested, perhaps I could have kept up the pace from laps 1, 2, and 3.

Have you ever tried to predict a race time? How close have you been? I think being 49 seconds off in a race over 5 hours is pretty close. Closer than I could ever guess.
Official results: 5:21:10

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